23rd Dec 21
last updated at 7:40pm 16/12/21
Range: 23/12/21 to 8/1/22
Predicted Auckland Freedom Day using current vaccination rates.*
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Come back every day at 3:30pm to see if the date changes. (I am back at school.)
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Get vaccinated today and watch the date move closer!
Update 1/11/21
Today the vaccination rates slowed down a bit, but the date improved because the time between first and seconds doses has reduced from 33 days to 29 days. We can now get this information daily.
If 5% of people that get a first dose do not get a second dose, the date is now 26th Dec
Update 31/10/21
Due to intense pressure from family and friends, we have changed the model to assume that only 2% of people who have a first dose don't go on to have a second dose. This has shifted the date forward.
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We have been asked why our date is so different to the date that media are estimating. eg. Stuff have also started providing a date and are currently estimating all 3 DHB's will reach 90% 2nd dose at the end of November. Source
We use a similar model to predict the date, however we make some different assumptions:
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1. Stuff assumes that 100% of people that get a first dose will get a second dose. In the new date that we provide, we assume that 2% of people that get a first dose won't get a second dose. Note: This still seems optimistic in our opinion and is different to the latest information we have been given which is 5%. We changed to 2% due to intense pressure from friends and family over our post Christmas prediction and because new vaccine mandates might improve this percentage.
The current range in dates from 2% to 5% is 16th Dec to 29th Dec. This shows how important it is to focus on getting people to have their second dose.
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2. Stuff assume that everyone will get their second dose exactly 3 weeks after getting their first dose. We assume that this is unlikely and we are using our current best estimate of 29 days as explained below.
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3. Note that both Stuff and the I Want to break free website assume that the rate of first doses will continue at the current rate. That also seems optimistic, but we are using this rate so that we can see the impact that current rates have on the date.
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*How did we calculate the freedom date?
There is a lot of information available about Auckland vaccinations. We wanted to simplify all this data into a single date that predicts when Auckland moves from Alert Level 3 to the traffic light system. The date could change each day as new data becomes available, so check back every day!
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The New Zealand Govt has said that Auckland will move to the traffic light system when all 3 Auckland DHB's reach 90% double dose vaccinations. Source
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Dr Ashley Bloomfield has said that about 95% of people who get a first dose go on to get a second dose. Source
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That means that we need to get 94.74% of Auckland with a single dose to make sure we will get 90% of Auckland double dosed. ( 0.90 / 0.95 = 0.9474)
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The Ministry of Health has started giving us total first and second dose vaccinations for each DHB every day some time after 1pm. Source
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They do not give historical data for each of the DHB's, so we are copying the data from the Ministry of health website each day and putting it into a Google Sheet. The data in the iwanttobreakfree website changes as we update our Google Sheet each day.
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We are currently focusing on 1st dose data because most people that get a first dose end up getting a second dose. We calculate the number of first dose vaccinations each day for each DHB and then calculate how many days of vaccinations are required at the 7-day average daily rate to get to the 94.74% first dose target for each DHB.
We use a 7 day average because as you can see from the graph below, there are more vaccinations on weekdays than weekends. At the moment we only have daily data back to Saturday 23rd Oct so only have 6 out of the last 7 days data. We are using the latest weekday for the missing day for now. This issue will be fixed this coming weekend when we will have a full 7 days of data.
The rate might slow down or speed up, but we want our date to change so everyone can see the impact of current vaccination rates to make it more fun.
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We use the DHB needing the most number of days to reach their target because Auckland needs all 3 DHB's to reach 90% double dose vaccinated.
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Finally we add the average number of days it takes between first and second doses. We calculate this number of days by looking at the cumulative first and second dose vaccination data and seeing how many days ago 95% of the first dose total was the same as the latest second dose total. We only get this information once per week on a Wednesday. It is currently 29 days.
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Check back to this page every day after 3pm to see the new FREEDOM DAY*
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*Freedom from the current Alert level system to the new traffic light system. There are still restrictions in the traffic light system.
NZ Daily vaccination graph
In this graph below it shows the first, second and total doses per day in NZ. As you might notice our peaks are on week days and our lows are in the weekend.
Data we used to predict the freedom date
Waitemata DHB
Auckland DHB
Counties Manukau DHB
about me
My name is Willoughby and I am in year 5 at Balmoral School. Over the lockdown my Dad has been teaching me how to make websites on Wix. I decided to make one about Covid-19. We made graphs on Google sheets about vaccinations and other cool stuff.
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We decided to try and estimate the day that Auckland would come out of lockdown. (Note: Our freedom date is just an estimate, don't try to plan a holiday using our date)
